Podcast on Cast on Cast

 

Finally.

In the podcast, we talk about baseball predictions, lots of NL east, injuries, play a game known as Wu-Tang Clan member of NBA player, talk about the Tim Tebow/Mark Sanchez movie, and I commit several name errors (Mark/Ryan Reynolds, Cody/David Ross, wanting to call Carlos Beltran Garry Sheffield)

 

It ‘s a long one, but its here. Tomorrow I will do another one, focused on basketball. Oh and Yes I know my voice is awful.

 

Download.

Coaching Grades vol. 2: West

Hey everyone, before this starts, I would like to apologize for a slow down in activity, real life has been well, real life recently, so yeah. However on the plus side, there should be a weekend podcast coming up!

No matter how you feel about the heat, you have to applaud them for showing emotion about something outside of sports.

Race to the MVP, Rookie Report, Power Rankings, the Nower Rankings, and god knows what else is dedicated to analyzing the players and teams deserving the most and least deserving of praise.

Ranking’s are inherently flawed to to being a completely subjective structure. You could say “True Blood” is better than “The Wire” and after I laughed at you I wouldn’t be able to prove you wrong.

So take this with a grain of salt when I do these coaching rankings, especially when I say I havent watched a team a lot. The Coaching Grades will be done in the middle of every month, each with it’s own twist hopefully.

THESE ARE BASED ON THEIR OWN EXPECTATIONS AND HISTORIES AS WELL AS PREFORMANCE

Let’s get on with it already: March

Southwest Division

• Kevin McHale – Rockets: (B) (Prev: C+) And so it continues. Klow goes down? Dragic go and do your thing, oh and everyone rebound the ball please, thanks. Really it is fun watching this Rockets team, it just seems like everyone knows their roles and just plays within them. Nobody is an exceptional rebounder or shooter, yet they manage to be a good rebounding team (12th in both O and D rebounding rates) and are currently 8th in eFG%. This team seems to be Darryl Morey’s least favorite, a team good enough to stick around the playoffs, but wont make any noise and cant really improve, but McHale has this team going on blast.
• Gregg Popovich – Spurs: (Pop) I am a Spurs fan, DO YOU REALLY WONDER WHAT I AM GOING TO SAY?
• Lionel Hollins – Gristle: (A+++++++++++) (Prev: C/C+) HE SIGNED GIL. I KNOW THE GM DID IT BUT GIL IS BACK. I know he is a shell of his former self, but jesus Gil was my favorite player when I fell in love with the game. Oh, and Z-Bo is back, meaning the Spurs and Thunder hope these guys get the 6th seed.
• Monty Williams – Hornets: (C) (Prev: C) I still don’t think it’s fair to really blame Monty for this team, and for how awful they have been he must be commended with how hard he gets these guys to play. Who really can you say has been the “best” player for this team since EG has been out all year. Ariza? Mek? Ayonsanity? They actually are getting outscored by less than 5PPG, which rates then 25th in the league, but much better than one would expect from this roster.
• Rick Carlisle – Mavs: (B+) (Prev: B+) Well they are still a below average offensive team, but they are improving in that and their defense is still a top 5 monster. They make up for being a bad offensive rebounding team with their powerful defensive numbers. I am not a big fan of playing Delonte this much, but based on their non Terry alternatives, I guess I understand. I still think they are a tragically flawed team that lacks the guard play to make another deep run, but Carlisle has them going hard.

Northwest Division

• Scott Brooks – Thunder: (C) (Prev: C) Derek Fisher is pretty much the new head coach, I think Brooks spends more time on his hair than trying to create an offense.
• Kaleb Canales – Blazers: (LOLWUT) Who can honestly say, this team is just so disappointing.
• Tyrone Corbin – Jazz: (A-) (Prev: A-) The Jazz just won’t die. I mean as long as the Clippers play like they are right now for the rest of the season, the Jazz should make the playoffs. They have 3 starting caliber bigs and a rookie who projects to become a defensive anchor. But outside of those 4, the team lacks so much. Their bench has interesting pieces, but the consistent production isn’t there.  They are a below average shooting team and make their bones through their strengths, they rarely turn it over, force turnovers and rebound the piss out of the opposition. This past month has seen more emphasis on feeding the youngin’s, with mostly good results.
• George Karl – Nuggggz: (B+) (Prev: B+) More injuries? Check. Signing Wilson Chandler because having 10 quality players isnt enough apparently? Check. Trading away Nene for “The Vale”? Check. Still being 5 games over .5o0? Check. I just hope JaVale on “The Association” Is the funniest stuff ever. On the court Karl has done a great job adapting on a nightly basis, and recently the adaptation has involved having Afflalo go off.
• Rick AdleMAN – Wolves: (Does it really matter anymore) Goodnight sweet Rubio, you were so young. We will miss you so.

Pacific Division

• Vinny Del Black – Clippers: (F-) (Prev: D+) DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE.
• Alvin Gentry – Suns: (B) (Prev: C) How? What? Gortat? Nash is pretty much the most dynamic player in the game not named LeBron or Dwight, and Gentry has actually created the bastard child of seven seconds or less with a zone offense. It is weird to see at first, but it could actually lead this awful team (outside of Nash/Thortat/Hill/Morris I see little in the ways of rotation talent) to a good record. Gentry has held the title of players coach for good reason it seems, as he continues to meld his system to the players.
• Mike Brown – Lakers: (C-/C/C+) (Prev: C-/C/C+) I feel no matter what he does, Kobe has to approve. I LOVE the addition of Sessions and the idea of using him as a 6th man though, because really Kobe knows that having more off the ball time is good for everyone, including him. I still worry what happens when the team needs to play from behind, because as the roster is constructed it is a scary thought for them.
• Keith Smart – Kangz: (B) (Prev: B/B+) I realize I was too high on him last time, but I still like him and thus I still give him a B. DMC has done so much better with him as the coach, and now instead of hearing “LULZ HES IMMATURE” we hear about what he does in the community. Reke/Zeke is still interesting and a high risk/reward style, but I like it. He still does not developing his bench, but ah well, he’s doing all he can.
• Mark Jackson – Warriors: (C-) (Prev: C+) Warriors fans are depressed, the owner for some reason is the root of all evil, and Monta is gone while Brandon Roy’s knee’s now occupy Steph Curry’s ankles. Mark Jackson seems to be focues more with turning Klay Thompson into jesus 2.0 than anything else, I don’t see him as a long term option.

Coaching Grades vol. 2: East.

Race to the MVP, Rookie Report, Power Rankings, the Nower Rankings, and god knows what else is dedicated to analyzing the players and teams deserving the most and least deserving of praise.

Ranking’s are inherently flawed to to being a completely subjective structure. You could say “True Blood” is better than “The Wire” and after I laughed at you I wouldn’t be able to prove you wrong.

So take this with a grain of salt when I do these coaching rankings, especially when I say I havent watched a team a lot. The Coaching Grades will be done in the middle of every month, each with it’s own twist hopefully.

THESE ARE BASED ON THEIR OWN EXPECTATIONS AND HISTORIES AS WELL AS PREFORMANCE

Let’s get on with it already: March

This edition will be a much more slender one, thanks to coaches being fired and not needing to go more in depth with their histories.

Atlantic Division

• Avery Johnson – Net’s: (C) (Prev: C-) Hey, that Dwight-Deron combo looks funny, why id Dwight starting at the 3…… Oh wait Gerald Wallace? AND YOUR GM GAVE UP THE PICK!?!?!?! Oh god. I can’t blame Avery too much for that move, but this team is still a train wreck. I improved his grade because he has let Gerald Green happen, has not been fired, and has managed to keep the players that have been producing on a similar level, albeit Brooks has gotten less efficient with each month. I still don’t see him lasting into next year, but hey, he isn’t Vinny Del Negro.
• Mike Woodson – Knicks: (N/A) Woodson Back. What does this mean for Knicks fans? Well it has gotten off to a good enough start, but he is still a stopgap coach. A solid enough defensive mind, he loses most of his praise when his team, or well one player on his team, has the ball. He loves his ISO play, and while this might mean higher Melo point totals, it is gonna lead to some ugly games. Still though, a new start, talent, it all perfectly culminates for a permanent title added to the resume with NY, which leads to 2-3 years from now getting fired. Win-Win for Woodson and fans of teams other than the Knicks.
• Doc Rivers – Celtics: (B-) (Prev: B-) Oh more injuries? In case Jeff Green wasn’t enough, Let’s add Wilcox and JO to that mix. While watching KG play C is one part sad and one part awesome due to the fact that when he tries to punk Perk and ends up all sorts of broken. While the Rondo situation still brews and the fact that there is no way in hell the roster looks like this 6 months from now, I find it hard to really feel anyway about Doc right now, so the grade stays the same.
• Dwane Casey – Raptors: (B-) (Prev: B-) I have not watched a Raptors game in 2 weeks. However, the fact he started Bayless makes me happy. A team this awful at scoring simply can’t win that many games, but the fact that they are not Hornets level bad speaks volumes on this teams effort. I still think he has a bright future, but this season isn’t the best reason.
• Doug Collins – Sixers: (A-) (Prev: A) Still the COY, but the glisten has faded a tad. The Sixers still have the same in house issues as they did, wether it be creating inside scoring or not stagnating in the half court, but his decision to just let Evan Turne start has played out quite well. I know Hawes being out still hurts, but that isn’t an excuse for being out rebounded on the season (especially on the offensive end) which is surprising considering how many they grab themselves.

Central Division

• Tom Thibodeau – Bulls: (B+) (Prev: B) Fastest to 100 coaching wins? Thibs. My main issue last month was his overplaying of players and his offense. While Deng will still likely die before the playoffs, how he has been able to dominate while Rose+Friends were out is a testament to what he has going for him in the Chi.Probably the deepest team in basketball, and with how this season has gone, that might be their biggest asset.
• Scott Skiles – Bucks: (D+) (Prev: C-) Who the hell decided to give Skiles Monta AND Jennings? I don’t care it’s the best NBA troll move in a long time. You take a guy who simply doesn’t give a fuck about coaching offense a guy who is abysmal on D? What’s scary is that in spite of their coach the Bucks are still likely going to the playoffs, thanks to the Annual Drew Gooden Triple Double and Ersanity. I still hate him though.
• Byron Scott – Cavs: (B-) (Prev: C+/B-) Last month I talked about how I was beginning to buy into what Scott is selling. Well now I have, and wether it’s the high that comes from watching Kyrie or the giddiness of watching Thompson start, this is just a fun team to watch. The amount of depth they have is still so damn laughable, and trading Ramon Sessions for a pair of New Wave Rejects is laughable (or if your a Cavs fan tear inducing) so it’s not really my place to make fun of….. aw screw it YOU STARTED SEMIH ERDEN NINE TIMES THIS YEAR HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAH
• Frank Vogel – Pacers: (B+) (Prev: B+) It will be interesting to see how he integrates another George Hill in the long run, but really this team is what it is, fun to watch, adaptable, and a Danny Granger not sucking season away from challenging the big dogs. Darren Collison is merely an average PG, and in todays NBA thats probably the last position you just want to be average at. Watching how he runs this team and has let players (ie: PAUL GEORGE) evolve into quality players has been great to watch.
• Lawrence Frank – Pistons: (C) (Prev: D+) Anyone else realize that Stuckey has been beasting in March? It looks like Frank has finally decided to go with Knight+Stuck most nights as his back court, Greg Monroe is being Greg Monroe, and since February 3rd the Pistons are actually above .500. He still has not corralled in how many shot’s Tayshaun is taking (team LEADING 12.9 a game) and still has this team run one of the slowest styles in the NBA despite not being equipped for it. But hey, there is some good happening.t

Southeast Division

• Stan Van Gundy – Magic: (B) (Prev: B-) Alright, record and players aside. I thought SVG was gonna die due to this Dwight stuff. He told the media to go away forever, he looked in physical pain half the time, and still coached really well. Now that Dwight has agreed to let this all happen next year again and we go back to looking at the games, I still am not a huge fan of his system, but damn if he doesn’t get the most out of his guys.
• Randy Whitman – Wizards: (C) (Prev: Not a single clue) All of this Wizards season should just be broken into one sentence: Make sure John Wall wants to stay here. New coach? Check. Getting rid of McGee? Check. Killing Blatche? We are working on that. He let’s guys play and learn what they do, but really, he himself isnt really doing much, and he is not any kind of creative.
• Erik Spoelstra – Heat: (B?) Is anyone even really sure what he does? He certainly is a smart guy and is liked by his players, but I don’t know what is his credit and what is having two top players and another all-star. They have implemented the basketball version of Oregon’s read spread or something? They have improved on their TO’s, steadily improving while Wade was out, and he stands by is guys. I really want to believe he is a good coach, but I am also not sure what to view with him. I am interested with his rotations of the bench going forward, as he has Battier and Miller now to go with Cole and Haslem. OH YEAH SAME AS LAST TIME
• Larry Drew– Hawks: (B-) (Prev: B) Hey coach, wanna tell us what to do? Larry Drew has done a decent enough job here no doubt, but I have no idea what he is trying to accomplish by replacing bad Joe Johnson ISO’s with bad Josh Smith ISO’s. To be fair 8/10 times these guys have decent enough games, but it seems to me that Drew cannot adapt to situations. Still having the Hawks play this well without Al Horford is no small task, I just have no idea how he can evolve his coaching.
• Paul Silas – Katz: (N/A) I am not going to badmouth Paul Silas, but my lack of a grade shouldn’t be taken as a compliment. This team is really bad and there is an incentive to play Kemba beyond the games themselves, but still I was hoping for more. I was hoping he would be a player coach who can be the hardass on the Diaw’s and Bad Porns of the world. I was hoping hey would play and uptempo game. But most importantly, I was hoping he would unleash holy hell onto the world of basketball in the form of Bismack Biyombo, a player who I have a mancrush to end all mancrushes, and not play him out of position and inconsistently. Silas is still a better person than almost any athlete, so it is hard for me to ever insult him. God that was hard. OH YEAH SAME AS LAST TIME

The New York Knicks are gonna start trying people!

 

So much has already been written about the Knicks, so excuse me if I keep the intro to this brief: 18-24, tied for 8th place in the east but lose the tiebreaker to the bucks, 6th highest payroll in the NBA. Amare. Melo. LINSJDGQW. Mike ‘Antoni trying to coach. Steve Fucking Novak. So much to say for all of these (Although the Novak one is in under 140 Tas Melas characters) but I don’t wanna write about awful contracts, horrible hyperbole, and horribly awful coaches, so why am I writing about the Knicks? Because they are officially going to try now guys.

Well according to the NY Times that is.

Stoudemire then made a plea for more professionalism in the locker room, saying that players need to show up earlier, with more focus and a more serious attitude.

“The joking around has to stop at some point,” he said. “We got to take this game very serious, especially in a time where now we’re in the eighth seed and we’re not playing well. So the time is now.”

Stoudemire did not offer specifics. But there was some horseplay in the locker room before the game, with one player throwing a chunk of food at Mike Bibby.

“There’s no time for fun and games right now,” Stoudemire said.

I can only imagine Amare in the locker room.

You hear that everyone? No more fun. No more making fun of Mike’s facial hair. No more replacing Baron’s beard cream with yogurt, no more spanish national team signs to Lin. No more asking Melo to buy you a new suit whenever he jacks up a bad shot. And it’s time to take some accountability for myself, I will limit my lazy layups and only take those mid range jumpers. Now look guys, just because we are assembled worse than my knee’s doesn’t mean we should quit. Aw fuck it parter at JR’s!

Now thinking about it, what else would be solved if NBA players just tried?

• Breaking: Dwight Howard has admitted he should have no involvement in front office moves after reading the new CBA
• Stephen Jackson get’s traded to team “x”, shockingly does not ask for lifetime extension.
• “Well we are halfway through the first quarter and the Pistons are 0-7 from the field, and the Bobcats Biyombo has 7 blocks”
• Breaking: Shaq has accepted he should not be on our TV’s if he is not on the court, resigns from TNT.
• Kobe Bryant scores 15 points on 6-12 shooting, has 7 assists, lakers win by 17.
• Andray Blatche has spontaneously combusted during Wizards practice.
• Manu Ginobili now has a full head of hair.
• The Timberwolves have 14 made field goals and Rubio has 20 assists.
• Michael Beasley just won defensive player of the year! (I kid, I kid)
• Hedo Turkoglu admits to finally trying, notches triple double, city of Orlando dies happy.
• Breaking: Kendrick Perkins just complimented a teammate.

The pod cast is coming soon!

How good has Bismack’s defense been as a rookie?

I live for Bismack Biyombo highlights, it’s actually really creepy how much I love him. Rookie’s with freakish wingspan (HIS ARMS GO PAST HIS KNEES) and defensive knowledge just make me all warm and gushy inside. Not that twitter is much different but still, I feel my love is nearly unrivaled. So of course this article is going to be biased. Anyway we are going to look at how he has been compared to other known amazing defensive bigs a rookies or early on his his career.

First let’s go balls deep for The Mack. He will be the only one we will be able to use Synergy for, and for some others we will likely not have that many different sources. Bismack has an okay DRating of 104, but an insane block% of 7.5 (2nd in the NBA to Ibaka’s 8.4) getting more blocks than fouls [they account for shooting fouls and other fouls]  (a 1.29 block per foul ratio) and has a block rating of 16.2 (compared to Dwights 7.8, Ibaka’s 10.8, Hibbert’s 8.4, and DeAndre Jordan’s 7.7) all of which are very good. Add in a 0.9 PPP overall and a .55 off the Pick-and-Roll and you see a very good defender. But how does he compare to some of the recent impact defense bigs? We are going to look at Dwight, Deke, Zo, KG, and Duncan for this article, but I could have picked many more.

Comparing him to Dwight actually leads to some interesting numbers. They both had 104 DRatings, and Dwight posted a nearly identical (1.17) Blocks per foul ratio, but other than that it would seem like Bismack did much better. Dwights 3.6 block%, while good, pales when compared to Biyombo’s. A Block rating of 7.7 also doesn’t make it seem like Dwight was the much better defensive player. Of course Dwight augmented it with his tenacious rebounding, something that Bismack is good at but not at Dwights level. As weird as it seems, in terms of rate statistics Bismack is having a better season than Dwights rookie year.

Deke and Zo comparions are a little harder to make, not only because there is less data around, but because they are from a different era. The game was much more physical and interior based, and while Block Percentage was almost universally down, blocks themselves were up and there were less fouls. While Zo and Deke had a worse DRating and Block%, they simply had better years relative to the league. Each cleared 3 blocks a game, had really good block% for their years (both top 4) and simply played a lot more than Bis has. While they did foul more, it was at a similar pace to Bismack and likely had similar, if not better Block-to-Foul ratios. It is open to interpretation, but when you factor in era’s and how much these guys played, both are better than Bismack.

When you look at Duncan, it just isn’t really that fair. Duncan came into the NBA with a 95 DRating, leading the league in defensive win shares, posted a worse block% than Bismack but also had a much better foul rate (Bismack averages a foul every 7.7 minutes, Duncan averaged 12.6 minutes) and also was just better. KG on the other hand is much more favorable, posting a 107 DRating, similar foul rates, and a worse block%. They have similar body types and KG getting to play his natural position of PF helps more than Bismack learning how to play C. Obviously this doesnt take into account how KG impacted other areas and all that, but still I DON’T CARE BISMACK!!!! Anyway, it looks like Duncan>>Bismack but he actually has done better than KG

Look, I am just trying to suck off Bismack here, and I know he would be lucky to ever reach any of these guys peaks, but he has shown a rare impact on defense that projects to only get better, especially if he can slide back to PF. He is never going to be an offensive force, but his defensive impact cannot be overstated. I LOVE YOU BIYOMBO

Thoughts from around the league: Zoro edition

Um........ Ok

 

As we get closer to the deadline (ONE WEEK AWAY) and the NBA continues to be the NBA, here are some good reads.

• Apparently Stan Hochman knows every working detail of Evan Turner’s life.
• Laugh at Chad Ford. Can you imagine the Hornets getting ANY value for EG? Oh and the Hawks would def trade Josh Smith for less than 30 games of Nash…..
• Kyle Lowry is getting an MRI, according to Kyle Lowry (Also in the replies check out the guy offering to heal him for extra lulz)
• Rip Hamilton is still never going to come back from this injury until every doctor in America clears him
• LeBron james laughs at you
• Kate Upton likes the Thunder. OH MY GOD YES
• In a very humble move, Amare reminds everyone who makes fun of Dwight playing GM that it could be very worse.
• SJax has a new rap video out. It’s produced by Big Krit, so excuse me while I whisper sweet nothings to the beat.
• Buzzer beaters (No FT’s though)
• Ersan Ilyasova, a guy who is in the NBA because he met the right girl, is averaging 18/12 his lat 10 games.
• Today is Kenny Smith’s and Sasha Vujacic’s birthday today. YAY
• On this day in 2008, the Rockets waived Gerald Green, who is now one of the best players in the NBADL. GREENSANITY

Does anyone really have a Need4Sheed?

From Rotoworld earlier today:

Rasheed Wallace has reportedly worked out for the Heat, but remains uncertain as to whether or not he’ll return to the NBA.’Sheed has been linked to the Lakers and the Heat, but is taking his time in making a decision. He could very well have enough left to help out a contender, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be in line for heavy minutes if he does come back.

From Rotoworld on February 24th:

According to Comcast SportsNet New England, Rasheed Wallace is set to sign with the Lakers.Because the Lakers only have 14 players on their roster, they can add Wallace and not have to waive a player to make room for their newest addition. Adding ‘Sheed may fuel rumors that the Lakers are looking to move Pau Gasol, but sources say adding Wallace is a move that will add depth to the Lakers bench, not a prelude to another deal.

Obviously the Sheed to LA rumors have taken a nose dive, but with the heat rumor, everyone’s favorite psychopathic bigman might make a comeback, but the issue I have is, does he really have anything left? Let me preface this by saying I think I am pretty unbiased about Sheed the player, even if I do love the crazy.

Long known as one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA, Sheed also carried around the reputation of being one of the most talented offensive (so if you can read context, you will notice this means overall) players, but one who cut his historical (from a media standpoint mind you) impact by being a passive player for much of the time, with five seasons of more than 4 threes a game (and one of 3.9) and almost a lock to finish in the 12-13 shots a game area. He added extra value from his hatred of all things turnovers, finishing as a 10% turnover rate guy for his career (for reference Webber was at 12%, KG is at 11.8% and Duncan is at 12%) and generally a good guy to have play for your team. However this is not a historical analysis, this has to do with the here and now, and if anyone really should have a Need4Sheed

Most projections take the last 2-3 years a player was playing, notes for injuries and team, and goes to work. With Sheed this is a little harder so first let’s set up what we value. His final two seasons are what we will take into account, weighing the Celtic season more than the final Detroit one. You can see that the final Detroit season only a large issue of a low FG% (Almost half of his shots were three’s also) was a easy worry to see, but a drop in PER and Win Shares also allowed for a guess of regression going into his 15th season. After signing the deal with the Celtics it was easy to get excited about Sheed off the bench, but his offense pretty much retired the year before. He shot under 30% from three, had the worst TS% and eFG% of his carrer, and he had lost almost all of his ability to create his own shot. (75% of his baskets were assisted) His defense was fading fast also, fouling more and stopping less players. Some of it could be linked to nagging injuries, but that did not stop him from retiring soon after Boston’s game 7 finals loss he started in the place of Kendrick “Perkisabeast” Perkins. Now a new CBA and a year and a half later, he want’s to comeback as a 37 year old who is 53rd in basketball history in minutes played? Excuse me if I doubt.

He would be lucky to play 15 minutes, and thats before factoring what team he goes to or how many fouls he would pick up. His lateral quickness and first step are gone, and as a spot up shooter, you have to wonder if he has any lift left on his shot. He still likely won’t turn the ball over much, but that’s not what you want to be your best skill as a big when all your others have gone away. I love Sheed, but please man, you need to let it go.

He’s back from Sport’s Nerd Superbowl 2012 (Thoughts from Sloan)

Via @KirkGoldsberry , the man behind the most intriguing presentation at SSAC

Yeah I know I promised some other posts, but scripting life often ends in failure, so whatever. Sloan was great, and even though I am pretty sure I awkwardly entered myself in a few conversations, I met some great people. Now then, I could totally brag about how I met certain people, but that would imply they remember who I am, which I doubt in all regards. The main point for this is what I saw and learned, and some other random site news. First of all this is pretty much how I feel about Vanny boy after not posting at all since his intro. NOT EVEN A SHITTY PREVIEW? But all is forgiven for now, as life threw perspective in my face again, as it likes to do. One of our family friends (who is much more family than many a blood relative) is going through a rough situation, so it grounded a slight amount of my rage. The overall highlight of the conference from a comedic standpoint was when Jeff Van Gundy, a man who I often cannot stand on TV, brought down the house in back to back panels with dry humor, and a well timed drop of “Who gives a shit.” Drew Carey (Yeah, I didnt actually know it was THAT Drew Carey until my friend told me he had lost a lot of weight) was easily one of the most impressive speakers, as he was able to show some of the most creative and potentially impact full ideas (My favorite was that GM’s serving a term that is up for re-election, rather than the self perpetuating contracts that many have around of sports) Anyway I could go on and on about random stuff like this, and I will, but I will also narrow down these next diatribes into a semi chronological order.

• After the welcome ceremony and the evolution of sport primer, the first place I headed towards was the research paper by Oregon student James Tarlow, titled ‘Experience and Winning in the NBA‘ which was a great place to throw myself into sloan. I finally got to meet Canis Hoopus “photoshop” legend Tim Allen after walking past him, and after a few Beasley/Johnson jokes, the presentation started. If you want to know the nitty gritty please read the paper because not only would it be a better source, but I also am not nearly smart enough to properly describe his process. I do know a few things about this presentation though, ranging from the fun facts like how this not only came about because of Tarlow’s annoyance with the traditional “If young team loses its because of youth, if older team losses its because young team had more athleticism and energy, blah blah blah” analysis on TV and he was able to work this and other analysis into his senior thesis, to the interesting pieces like how NBA experiences matters much less than experience as a teammate, coaches don’t learn from success, and how drastic midseason trades can impact a team’s flow, to the impressive “I have researched 804 NBA seasons [BuzzNote: from 1979-09] for this paper” and “[insert formula] we will use as a regression for this question” type quotes he gave which pretty much made everyone in the room feel lazy and dumb at the same time. There were some flaws I saw and the questions people asked him after were awful, but I really liked this topic.
• After seeing the tail end of the business of sports panel and then having lunch with two college students who had interesting ideas and talking to a few bloggers and a D-League exec, I made my way into a suddenly crowded research paper room to see Robert Ayer’s paper on how big 2’s and 3’s compliment or hinder each-other. While I liked the concept of this topic, I felt that the way he was measuring things like efficiency (relying to much on point per game, basic shooting, etc) and player “archetypes” too narrowly. It was still interesting to hear, but I disagreed with how he analyzed how well these cores gelled. He also attempted to make it talent-agnostic (aka just a measure of player type) while still factoring things that are almost exactly related to talent.
• I finally went to a full on panel in the large ballroom, the baseball analytics panel, featuring Rob Neyer, Scott Boras, Mark Shapiro, Jeff Luhnow, Rocco Baldelli, and the prophet of SABR himself, Bill James. it was not what I was expecting at all with it instead of talking about current stats, players, and analysis, the panal focused more of the philosophies GM’s (Shaprio, now Luhnow), Players (Baldelli/Boras), Agents (Boras), and analysts (Bill James, Neyer) use to help get points across and try to gain a better understanding. What I found great was that they understood that this was not life or death, and the level of humor and brevity made it a much more engaging discussion to listen too.
• Staying in the same room but moving much closer to the stage was all I did for about 10 minutes in preparation for the NBA panel, featuring Brent Barry, Mark Zarren, John Hollinger, Jeff Van Gundy, Dean Oliver, and Jackie MacMullen, which was probably the most entertaining and informative panel I saw my entire time at the conference. The flow of the conversation was one that allowed you to feel like you were one of the guys up there, as jokes and wisecracks were rampant, and the minds of guys like Oliver and Zarren, who works for the Celtics, were showcased when they talked about how the use the data after collecting all of it. One of the more hilarious parts of the entire conference was when the talk came to Rondo and everyone ganged up on Zarren to try to make him say something he shouldnt, and nobody able to keep a straight face. Anecdotes about how teams are not only valuing analytics but also making it a point to make sure they have the best people was very interesting, and Zarren offering a job to anyone who can program Seagull well enough to manage a database showed how much they value finding new talent.
• Directly after this was a panel I originally had no interest in, but ended up loving in the Coaching Analytics, which featured the least amount of actual information of any event I went to, but was still highly entertaining. Featuring Van Gundy, Bill Simmons, Daryl Morey, Eric Mangini, and current NFL player and likely now stat geek hero Lawrence Jackson (who actually stayed for the second day also, which was really cool) talked about how coaches and players both use the numbers to try to help teach or show how they are being misused. Well in theory that is what it was, but it ended up really being about coaching philosophies and showing that Jeff Van Gundy is actually really damn funny. Jackson brought up several good points on what it is like to have an inconsistent coach and Mangini was there for……. Well he works for ESPN now.
• The last event of the first day was a live BS report with Bill Simmons (duh) and Bill James. It was a great look into not only Bill James the writer, but also how he is actually a human, and has his regrets and things he is proud of. I think more NBA bloggers RT’d James than anyone else at the conference, mostly after he dropped the quote in saying that at their peak, he sees the basketball advanced stats being the best. James also talked about how important he saw not so much changing the culture of the people who were already in the industry when he started writing, but those of the children and their children. I believe it is safe to say he has worked that out really well, as everyone from Bill Simmons to Daryl Morey admitted to reading, and not always agreeing, with the baseball abstracts of yesteryear.
• Day Two started with two of the more science rooted presentations they had, as I watched the “Impact of belief (no Tebow beliefs mind you, more of a placebo effect belief) on the athlete” and “Building the athletes brain” presentations. The first showed that once athletes are at the top level of competition that the talent gap is so small that how the mind works helps more than anything. A positive belief, even if others are given a “proven” aid, was shown to cause the best performance among similar athletes. The company that presented the nest topic is named Axon Sports, and while they offer their tool as a service to help athletes program their brain better, don’t take it as a get rich quick scheme. It uses detailed position dependent exercises, ranging from pitch recognition from the point of release in baseball to finding the lanes during a running play in football, it allowed for over 1000 reps at any activity over the course of a few hours, instead of a few weeks or even months without it.
• Transitioning to (wait for the segue) the next time slot, I decided to go to the “Franchises in Transition” (THERE IT IS) panel. Going into it I found it funny that there was a guy there named Drew Carey who looks similar to the picture I had in my head of Whose Line Carey, since I havent seen “The Price is Right” in several years I had no idea he actually had lost weight and grew his hair out. The rest of the panel featured Morey, representatives from the Saints, Niners, Astros, and Tony Reali. (Who impressed the hell out of me) Many of the conversation points dealt with how to get fans invested in the team, and Carey shown through, as he is an owner of one of the most well run MLS teams in the country, the Seattle Sounders, and he showed that innovative ideas (referenced in the opening paragraph) really make the fans feel like you are trying. There was some humblebrags all around, but a solid panel overall.
• Deconstructing the Rebound and Visual and Spatial Analytics were the next presentations I saw and wow, I still cannot believe how great they were. The rebound presentation shows where all rebounds occur, where offensive rebounds occur more often, and what the success rate of team x or y getting the rebound in situations. They used camera’s and algorithms to prove their data and overlapped it over how every NBA team does this year and in the past also. It ended up getting the award of the best research paper, and while I prefer Spatial more, it was still great. Spatial was almost the same in that it analyzed how well players shot from certain sports, but it also went into much greater detail (specific players and such) and it also had a stat I now love called range%, which is calculated by measuring how much of the shooting area does a player average more than 1PPA. (Point Per Attempt) [BuzzerNote: Tyson Chandler is first in FG% and last in range% WIN] He also was incredibly well spoken and even was able to crack jokes at himself. My favorite hour at the event.
• I went to predicting the next pitch, while useful to teams and a place like AXON, was so damn boring.
• Next was “redefining NBA positions” which I thought was quite awful in fact. The whole idea of ranking player skill types was done much better by people with much less resources in the past (I cant find the exact article I had in mind) and just the way he looked at players and measured what made them good was so meh. I mean, really fucking meh.
• One of the last things I saw was a proposal to change how we psychologically evaluate players. The guy running it used the Wonderlic and other NFL tests as an example of what doesn’t work and provided examples of what really does work. As someone interested in psychology (Which considering how many psychological issues I have had is funny) I really enjoyed it, but I doubt y’all will so let’s move on. After that I hung around until the awards ceremony, which was pretty much we love you Bill James and everyone who contributes hour. The last thing on the agenda was a second live BS report with Mark Cuban. While Cuban can be abrasive and very OCD, he actually did a good job coming off as down to earth and a person who cares about his players, which I really believe he does. Other than those two topics they talked tech and random Mark Cuban stories.

And so ends my time at Sloan. I write this while on a train from Boston to Washington D.C. with BAD internet (but it has it so I cant complain too much) so excuse any errors. I hope to go back to Sloan next year, but in the meantime I will hope to keep all I learned from it and continue to learn about all sorts of analytics. Now then, I should be back on track for the blog, which is to say there is no track.

Deadline? Chaz laughs at your deadline.

 

As we amble around the post AllStar Game hangover, we are able to forget awful nights of basketball like yesterday was. However as the March 15 trade deadline approaches, the exhypement that surrounds it will increase exponentially. Several Players have been on the block, but the one we all want still appears to finish it out in Phoenix. Really this year looks to be mostly depth deals, and the only two blockbuster trades that could occur seem to becoming pipe dreams as each day passess. So let’s talk about these guys shall we? It will have to be quick but here I go.

 

Really I separate them into likely to be moved and pipe dream, let’s go

Likely

• JaVale McGee
• Blatche
• Barbossa
• Kaman
• Al Jefferson
• Beasley
• Either Ray Felton or Wessy Matthews

Pipe Dream

• Dwight Howard
• Pau Gasol
• Monta Ellis
• Kevin Martin
• Nash (FFS Phoenix just trade him)
• Deron Williams
• Rondo
• Brook Lopez

 

ANYWAY

There will be no posts from me tomorrow, as I will be traveling (again? again.) to Boston for the MIT Sloan Sports conference. However I will be doing networking and of course posting about the event while there, and the weekend should have some good news.

On the podcast front I have some guest’s lined up, so this is going to happen. Stay tuned for me.

Its different, but you’ll learn to like it

Skeptical dog is skeptical of change

 

Whats funny is that is what I always say to girls. Anywhozle, Im Van Swagtic as you can see. I was brought on to be the (main?) baseball writer on this here basketball(lol wut) blog. What you can expect of me is simple, I’m snarky and sarcastic to the point where you’ll think I hate sports. The truth is I dont. I love sports. They’re fun and stuff.

 

I hope to add some more content to this bolg and keep it fresh and interesting, unlike your mothers in bed. One regular feature I hope to have is something called “Extension Roulette.” We’ll cover what that is when the time comes up(yay suspense!). While I tend to be snarky and sarcastic I do hope that I cant inform some of you by providing analysis of events and happenings around the MLB. I hope to bang out a few posts a day during the season, and I hope to be drunk for most of them. That in itself should be entertaining.

 

-Van Swagtic